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Mugabe, Tsvangirai and Makoni square up
After last week's nominations, the candidates for the Zimbabwe March 2008 presidential election will be Robert Mugabe for Zanu PF, Morgan Tsvangirai of Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and two independent candidates, Simba Makoni and Langton Towungana.
I think the real interesting thing for me is that the winner has to have at least 51% of the votes and failing that there will be a run-off between the two top candidates and in that case that brings the question of who will come third.
I think its realistic to think that both Tsvangirai and Makoni will get more than 20% percent of the votes and their total votes will be more than 50% and if that were to happen then there will be a run-off and thats where things could become interesting and I will briefly look at the different scenarios.
If Makoni finishes third then it means Mugabe will have to face Tsvangirai in a repeat of the 2002 Presidential elections. The winner will depend on whether Makoni's supporters will go for Mugabe or Tsvangirai.
In the event that Tsvangirai finishes third then the run-off will be between Makoni and Mugabe. I think in that case Makoni would win because most of Tsvangirai's supporters will be more likely to vote for Makoni and not Mugabe.
The last scenario would be the most interesting one and that will be if Mugabe finishes third. That means Makoni will run against Tsvangirai and Mugabe's supporters will for the first time see a presidential election not featuring Mugabe and they will have to choose between Makoni and Tsvangirai and I think that will be a very uncomfortable decision indeed for them to make.
I think if the third scenario were to happen then that will be the hardest run-off to call.
I am still to read about what Langton Towungana has to offer but I doubt he will cause problems to the other three
main candidates.
...It is interesting to note that Makoni has publicly said that he continues to be a member of the Zanu PF party, which to me implies that he still abides and goes with the destructive style of governance we have seen in the last 27 years.
So it becomes a choice between Mugabe's Zanu PF and Makoni's Zanu PF...... To me Makoni doesn't sound like an alternative. I strongly believe he has been put there by the Zanu PF looters who are no longer feeling safe under Mugabe but also want somebody like themselves (somebody who has the same political thinking as themselves, corrupt, etc) to lead so that they can be assured of protection and continue to enjoy their ill-gotten wealth.
Makoni is being supported by so called Zanu PF heavyweights, but who are they.....if they don't want to be identified with just months to an election, they are not worth their word to bring about change in Zimbabwe.
Mujuru and Mandaza.......its not about having people's aspirations at heart...its all about personal interests and the protection of their wealth......Mujuru has been part of the plot to loot the common man of his dignity while his pantry is full.
He has spread his tentacles everywhere corruptly in most cases when the common is dying of hunger.....finance, oil, farming, retail, ........he changed his political ideologies long back.
Makoni is trying to bring Zanu back in different clothing. I dont' think thats what we want at the moment. Makoni is saying he will have talks with Tsvangirai so that Tsvangirai can step aside....it should be the other way round.......Makoni should be Tsvangirai's running mate and then he can be Tsvangirai's deputy. I feel sorry for Dabengwa.
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Thanks for the comment, Mbareboy. I am also keen to see Makoni what will bring because I think so far he said what anybody would have said about Zimbabwe at the moment and there is really much to say if you consider that there is no water, electricity, money etc. You can just I will make sure I will bring those things back and thats a start.
But sometimes he sounds like a genuine reformer and maybe I should say its early days at the moment and possibly too early to judge.
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